Lockdown Failed

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There have been many studies detailing the complete failures of the Lockdown. One study,
conducted by Jay Bhattacharya and John Ioannidis concluded, “In summary, we fail to find
strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020.

We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated
communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay at-home
orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits.
However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these
aggressive measures. More targeted public health in interventions that more effectively reduce
transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly
restrictive measures.”1
In a speech to Hillsdale College, Scott Atlas noted, “Besides their limited value in containing the
virus, lockdown policies have been extraordinarily harmful. The harms to children of suspending
in-person schooling are dramatic, including poor learning, school dropouts, social isolation, and
suicidal ideation, most of which are far worse for lower income groups. A recent study confirms
that up to 78 percent of cancers were never detected due to missed screening over a three-month
period. If one extrapolates to the entire country, 750,000 to over a million new cancer cases over
a nine-month period will have gone undetected. That health disaster adds to missed critical
surgeries, delayed presentations of pediatric illnesses, heart attack and stroke patients too afraid
to go to the hospital, and others—all well documented. Beyond hospital care, the CDC reported
four-fold increases in depression, three-fold increases in anxiety symptoms, and a doubling of
suicidal ideation, particularly among young adults after the first few months of lockdowns,
echoing American Medical Association reports of drug overdoses and suicides. Domestic and
child abuse have been skyrocketing due to the isolation and loss of jobs. Given that many
schools have been closed, hundreds of thousands of abuse cases have gone unreported, since
schools are commonly where abuse is noticed. Finally, the unemployment shock from
lockdowns, according to a recent National Bureau of Economic Research study, will generate a
three percent increase in the mortality rate and a 0.5 percent drop in life expectancy over the next
15 years, disproportionately affecting African Americans and women. That translates into what
the study refers to as a “staggering” 890,000 additional U.S. deaths. We know we have not yet
seen the full extent of the damage from the lockdowns, because the effects will continue to be
felt for decades. Perhaps that is why lockdowns were not recommended in previous pandemic
response analyses, even for diseases with far higher death rates.”2
Professor Wilfred Reilly conducted two separate studies on the impact of comparing Democrat
states to Republican states lockdown states compared to non-lockdown states from April to
August 2020. He found that Republican states had lower unemployment rates. Republican state’s
unemployment dropped from 13.2 to 6.5 and Democrats went from15.2 to 8.2. Lockdown states
in April 2020 saw unemployment rates at 15 percent before dropping to 8.2 percent. Nonlockdown states begin with unemployment rates of 10.9 percent before dropping to 5.5 percent.
And his data on Covid-19 virus also showed there was no significant difference in deaths per
capita between Blue and Red states.3
Americas Majority Foundation has been following up, on a weekly basis, both economic data
and deaths from the Covid-19 virus. We looked at the data in four different ways and found that
there was little difference in death from Covid but there was a significant difference in economic
performance between Republican states and Democratic states as well as non-lockdown states
and lockdown states.
In comparing the bigger Blue states and bigger Red states, we found that there was significant
difference in economic performance and that these Blue state performances were not just worse
in economics, but more people died from Covid-19 virus in Blue states.
In reviewing data on those states who locked-down versus states who didn’t, this survey showed
that states who locked down not only had more deaths from Covid-19 virus but a worse
economic performance.
Recent data Red States vs Blue States
The following data was based on the Covid virus death total April 19th, 2021 and unemployment
data from March 2021 comparing states with Republican governors with Democratic governors.
The Covid-19 virus data is based on CDC tracker and World O Meters.
There have been little over 301,000 deaths in Blue states versus a little over 263,000 deaths in
Red states.
Blue states averaged 12,600 deaths versus the Red State average of a little over 9,700 deaths per
state.

In our survey, there was a slight advantage for Blue states in deaths per capita. There was 1,578 per million in Blue States versus 1,604 per million in Red states. There were 26 less deaths per million in Democratic states. But there was a high price to save those 26 lives per million. The policies put in place to save those lives in the near term will cost more lives in the long term. Blue states averaged 6.4% unemployment in March 2021 compared to only 4.6% unemployment for Republican governors, so the price of saving those 26 lives per million was 18,000 per million unemployed and we do not take in account the increase of suicides, drug overdoses and delayed treatment of chronic diseases which as Scott Atlas noted, exceeded the actual deaths to Covid-19 virus. Economists with the National Bureau of Economic Research calculate that “Over the next 20 years, 1.37 million more people will die than would have died without the unemployment shock the pandemic caused.” 4
It is not just a tradeoff between preventing COVID deaths and Jobs. It is a tradeoff of lost jobs and long-term health impacts.
GOP states averaged 5.1% GDP growth in the fourth quarter versus only 3.7% growth in Blue states.5
In summary, when comparing all 50 states, we notice while Democratic governors have a slight
advantage in deaths per capita they fall behind in GDP growth in the fourth quarter and
unemployment. Republican governors did a better job of economic growth with no significant
difference in per capita death.

Top Eight populous states

The top eight populous states are similar in population and demographics. The top four
populous states with Democratic governors reviewed were California, New York, Illinois,
Pennsylvania which have nearly 85 million people. The states with Republican governors
examined were Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Georgia whose population total was 74 million people.
Comparing demographics, 57% of Democratic states’ residents are white and Republican states
are 56% white. Hispanics make up 21% of Democratic states and 20% of the GOP states.
Republican states had a higher percentage of black voters with 15% versus 11% of Democratic
states. Asians make up 8.5% of Democratic states and 3% of Republican states. Racial make-up
of these states was similar regardless of if they were Republican or Democrats.
The Democratic states had a total of nearly 162,000 deaths to 122,000 deaths in Republican
states and Democratic states had a higher per capita death with nearly 2,030 deaths per million
compared to 1,703 deaths per million in GOP states.

The same Republican states had significantly lower unemployment than their Democratic
counterparts with the average 5.2% unemployment versus 7.8% unemployment in the
Democratic states.

The Republican states had a fourth quarter GDP growth of 5.1% versus 3.7% for Democratic
states. What we find is that Republican larger states had 327 less deaths per millions and their
unemployment was 2.6% unemployment lower than Democratic states which represent 26,000
less unemployed per million less than in blue states. Texas, Georgia, and Florida had a more
open strategy compared to the more restrictive blue states, but New York, Illinois Pennsylvania
and California averaged more deaths and worse unemployment. Slower growth, higher
unemployment and higher death totals would show that the lockdown and restrictive economic
policies did not to stem the virus and created more economic hardships. 6
Lockdown Skeptics
The blog Lockdown Skeptics compared death totals of the states did not relock down their
economy in the 2020-21 winter months versus those who lockdown their states. 7 Lockdown
states averaged 1,671 per million deaths versus 1,736 death per million in non-lock states.
And like the comparison between the more populous state, the non-lockdown states had
significantly lower unemployment rates 4.3 percent vs lockdown states of 5.8%. 8 This set of
data followed what Wilfred Reilly found in his study for Americas Majority Foundation when he
found non-lockdown states had significantly reduced unemployment than lockdown states and
had lower deaths per capita compared to lockdown states. 9
Results of Divided, GOP and Democratic Governments on unemployment
National Review’s Capital Matters reviewed the economic performances of governments in
which Republicans or Democrats control of the legislature as well as the governor seat, and those
states that government was divided in power between legislature and governor seats in which one
party would control the governor seat and the other party would control one or all legislatures.
(Data based on US March data and per capita death based on April 19th data) The results were
that both GOP run states and Divided states had unemployment below the national average with
GOP states running at 4.7% and Divided States at 5.3%. (Republican governors running divided
government had a slightly higher unemployment at 5.6% vs Democratic governor at 5.2% and
both significantly under the national average.)10

In reviewing per capita data, Red States averaged 1,644 deaths per million compared to Blue
states 1,567 deaths per million. Divided States had less deaths per million than either
Democratic or Republican states at 1,416 deaths per million. GOP states had 35% less
unemployment than Democratic States and 5% higher deaths per capita. GOP had 15% less
unemployment compared to Divided states, whereas Divided government had 14% less deaths
per capita from Covid.
Unemployment in Divided States was 26% less than Blue states and death per capita was 7% less
as well.

So, what can we conclude? What these numbers don’t show is the increase in deaths from
suicides, drug overdoses, delayed or no treatment for chronic diseases, and increases in mental
health issues nor does this measures the loss of educational opportunities as many schools were
closed for in-school instructions. The differences in death in Red States versus Blue States
from Covid-19 virus could theoretically be wiped out from the improvement in treating chronic
diseases, decreased mental health issues and more educational opportunities as Blue States more
restrictive approaches and inferior economic performances should increase health issues in other
areas ignored by the lockdown.
So, the question that remains is that while Blue states may have saved 77 deaths per million from
Wuhan virus, it was a cost of 25,000 more unemployed per million--were the lockdowns worth
the loss of economic opportunities? (This doesn’t consider the cost of higher health deaths in
other areas ignored or students falling further behind.) Democratic states not only had more
deaths per million per capita than divided government, but they also had far more
unemployment.
Republican and Divided states had superior economic performances than Democratic states and
Divided states had less death per capita. When you combined Divided government and
Republican States you have 1,578 deaths per capita to Wuhan virus compared to 1,567 deaths
per million in Democratic states with a combined unemployment of 4.8% versus 7% in all
Democratic States. There were no significant differences in death per capita between the
combined divided and Republican states, but there was 29% less unemployment than Democratic
states.
Democratic states did not have a significant advantage in saving lives from the Covid virus, but
their economic performances were significantly worse than Republican and divided states.
Unemployment was above the national averages in Democratic run states, and this is yet another
evidence that the Lockdown did little to save lives from the Covid virus, but they did have
impact on the economic life of those states.

Conclusion
The scientific and economic data is showing that the Lockdown was a complete disaster as there
is little evidence that lockdown saved lives compared to those states with less economic
restrictions. The evidence also shows that non-lockdown states and states with Republican
governors had less unemployment and higher growth while suffering no significant increases in
deaths to Covid. Lockdowns saw increases in suicides, drug overdoses, delayed treatments for
chronic diseases and cancer therapies as well delayed screening for cancer and other delayed
screening. One study contends that over the next two decades that 1.3 million people will die or
die prematurely as result of the lockdown.11 This data and others are showing that more people
will die as result of the lockdowns than the virus itself.
Our own data shows that one of our three studies showed less deaths per capita among
Republican states and two studies showed a slightly higher deaths per capita. In our studies
among lockdown states, non- lockdown states had 4% less deaths per capita versus Lockdown
states. Red States had a 5% higher death total than Democratic states when we looked
comparing Republican, Democratic and Divided states. (Democratic states were outperformed by
states with divided government.) We did find the top four most populous states with
Democratic governors had a 29% more death per capita that those populous states with
Republican states.
Regardless of the methodology and what was reviewed, Democratic governors and Democratic
states performed worse than their Republican counterpart significantly in economics while
showing no significant decrease in Covid deaths. In studies comparing Republican and
Democratic governance, we found that ranges of 29% to 35% less unemployment among
Republican states and there was 25% less unemployment among non-lockdown states versus
lockdown states. Even divided States performed better and this could be due to better
cooperation between both Parties in their states.
I have theorized that the unemployment rate should be no worse than 5% and even less than that
and these studies show that this theory have validity. When looking at the combination of
Republican and divided government, the unemployment was 4.8 percent. Democratic states
have impacted unemployment and economic growth tremendously as their economic restrictions
have failed to stem the virus while negatively impacting their economy. If we had lower
unemployment rate and a stronger recovery, we would have less needs for stimulus and massive
government spending and as a society, we would be better off with more economic opportunities
and less deaths from chronic diseases, suicides, and drug overdoses. If we matched the
performance of the divided and Republican states, we are talking 12,000 per million less people
unemployed and this could represent at least 4,000,000 more people working more than
presently. This shows the cost of the lockdown.
Minorities had higher death total from the Covid virus and living under a Democratic governor
may be one reason why.
We compared top eight populous stats. In those with Democratic governors, Blacks and
Hispanics had significantly higher deaths from Wuhan virus than states with Republican
governors. In Andrew Cuomo’s New York, Blacks were more than twice as likely to die from
the Covid virus than in Ron DeSantis’ Florida and Hispanics were nearly half as likely to die in
Florida than New York. Blacks and Hispanics were slightly more likely to die in California than
in Florida on a per capita basis. Anthony Fauci once declared New York the gold standard in
dealing with the Covid virus but we now know Cuomo was one of the most incompetent
governors in dealing with the virus as Florida has outshined New York every way possible. The
only thing that Cuomo succeeded in was killing his economy while he managed to have one of
the highest death totals in the country. One recent study concluded that over the next 20 years,
that 32.6 blacks per 100,000 will die compared to 24.6 per 100,000 among Whites.12 Lockdowns
impacted Blacks and Hispanics more than Whites and there will be increase of 3.2 percent in
death overall due to the lockdowns.
This study along with others conducted by Wilfred Reilly for the Foundation reinforced what
others have seen, that lockdowns and economic restrictions did not produce significant
reductions in deaths to Covid-19 Virus, but they did produce significant reductions in
employment and economic growth. Less Restrictive states had lower unemployment and higher
economic growth. Florida governor Ron DeSantis admitted the Lockdown was a mistake and
added, “If we hadn’t stood up, these people may not have jobs, the businesses may have gone
under, the kids wouldn’t be in school.” We must learn from the mistakes from dealing with this
pandemic and the first lesson, Lockdowns were a failure and should never be repeated again.
.

Footnotes

  1. Assessing mandatory stay-at-home and business closure effects on the spread of COVID-19
    Eran Bendavid1,2 | Christopher Oh1 | Jay Bhattacharya2 | John P. A. Ioannidis1,3,4,
  2. Science, Politics, and COVID: Will Truth Prevail? Scott W. Atlas Hoover Institution
    February 18, 2021 Hillsdale College
  3. An Ignored Cost the Effect of Yes-No Lockdown Strategy, along with Red-Blue Political
    Partisanship and Other Variables, on April-August Unemployment across U.S. States
    Wilfred Reilly Associate Professor Kentucky State University with F. Jane Lingle Research
    Associate
  4. The Long-Term Impact Of the Covid-19 Unemployment Shock On Life Expectancy and
    Mortality Rates Francesco Bianchi Giada Bianchi Dongho Song
  5. Data based on World O meters, CDC Tracking data, Department of Labor data
  6. Data based on World O meters, CDC Tracking data, Department of Labor data
  7. If Lockdowns are Needed, Why Did More People Die in U.S. States Which Locked Down
    Than Those Which Did Not? – Lockdown Sceptics
  8. Department of Labor
  9. Reviewing the Data on the Efficacy of the Lockdown and Comparison of Red States versus
    Blue States dealing with Covid-19 By Wilfred Reilly
  10. National Review of data April 22, 2021 and the Covid data based on CDC tracking and
    World-O-Meters, March Department of Labor
  11. The Long-Term Impact Of the Covid-19 Unemployment Shock On Life Expectancy and
    Mortality Rates Francesco Bianchi Giada Bianchi Dongho Song
  12. The Long-Term Impact Of the Covid-19 Unemployment Shock On Life Expectancy and
    Mortality Rates Francesco Bianchi Giada Bianchi Dongho Son

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